tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-59721172011-06-07T23:27:59.429-07:00Personal Musings and Nickel RegressionsJCnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3101100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1092848108145437522004-08-18T09:47:00.000-07:002004-08-18T09:55:08.146-07:00

Well, I thought I'd make it official although this post is several months overdue. I enjoyed starting The Hat, but Sabernomics took over my life. Blogging is a strange thing. You don't know what you are going to be blogging about until you get into it. It turns out that the blogoshpere didn't need another policy blog. The Hat just didn't have a niche in this area, though I enjoyed it. However,

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1081536035817396552004-04-09T11:36:00.000-07:002004-04-09T11:44:42.246-07:00

Here is a brilliant piece of hypothetical history from Gregg Easterbrook on what would have happened if the Bush administration had done what Richard Clarke and many Democrats claim, now, that it should have done when it took office.

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1081518739008957862004-04-09T06:52:00.000-07:002004-04-09T07:01:29.670-07:00

I ran into this website thanks to a link at The Chronicle for Higher Education site. The trend is disturbing. No wonder one school is fining professors for giving out too many As. Also, Princeton has put a cap on the number of As professors can give.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1081348457940583312004-04-07T07:34:00.000-07:002004-04-07T07:38:04.530-07:00

Craig Newmark at Marginal Revolution has some more good advice for graduate school in economics. You also may be interested in my guide to graduate school in economics.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1081347765460668362004-04-07T07:22:00.000-07:002004-04-07T07:26:32.250-07:00

There is an interesting article in The Tennessean about Sewanee's image modification. I think the article is misleading. My impression is that the name change had NOTHING to do with the loosening our affiliation with misguided southern stereotypes. I sat in on several of the meetings where outside consultants encouraged us to play up our being in the South. It was the insiders who wanted to

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080921113563093202004-04-02T07:51:00.000-08:002004-04-02T07:57:27.530-08:00

Tyler links to an interesting post on changes in the US since 1904. This is particularly interesting to me since my grandfather was born during that year. The numbers are staggering, particularly the life-expectancy of 47. I think it is truly amazing how much the living conditions of my family have changed in just two generations. It makes me gasp at what my daughter's children will have in

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080704518218394632004-03-30T19:40:00.000-08:002004-03-30T19:47:55.966-08:00

Enjoy a taste of Dan Ackman’s hilarious review of Donald Trump’s new biography Trump: How to Get Rich (Note: I refuse to provide a link to this book) from the Tuesday March 30, 2004 WSJ: Who among us -- ex-wives, former mistresses and spurned business partners excepted -- does not love The Donald? He first entered our world, and allowed us into his, more than 20 years ago, and he has never left

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080686908210318822004-03-30T14:48:00.000-08:002004-03-30T14:53:11.983-08:00

Fellow GMU alum and now GMU professor Alex Tabarrok gives some excellent advice to graduate students in an interview with Crescat Sententia. If you go to graduate school be prepared to be bored for at least the first two years. After that it gets much more interesting. And believe it or not the boring stuff will help you to do the fun stuff. (And the boring stuff becomes a lot more fun when it

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080657618392997322004-03-30T06:40:00.000-08:002004-03-30T06:45:51.500-08:00

It is not just OPEC (as Bill pointed out) or greedy oil companies, but environmental regulations. Well, I suspect there is a good chance oil companies have had a hand in supporting these regulations (see Russell Roberts's post on Bruce Yandle's Bootleggers and Baptists hypothesis). Skip has a good post on this, and he is pessimistic about the chances for a fall in gasoline prices anytime soon.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080627038824558692004-03-29T22:08:00.000-08:002004-03-29T22:15:08.403-08:00

On Monday nights Letterman show, Dave presented the following high concept comedy piece - have 1999 Nobel Prize winner for Economics Robert Mundell come out and tell old Jeff Foxworthy “You might be a redneck” jokes. Throughout the entire hour, Dave called on Mundell to tell old chestnuts like: If you only have one tooth, you might be a redneck. If you call your sister mom, you might be a

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080610201721931232004-03-29T17:28:00.000-08:002004-03-29T17:33:36.576-08:00

Here are a couple “Random Thoughts” from the great Thomas Sowell: It is almost impossible to go to a shopping mall these days without seeing some teenage girl's navel. There was a time when a guy was not likely to see a girl's navel except on some more memorable occasion than a visit to a mall. I don't want to give false hope to anyone with medical problems. But I remember a doctor telling me,

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080564087108679432004-03-29T04:41:00.000-08:002004-03-29T04:45:01.093-08:00

For those of you who have been following Old Fishinghat from the early days, you have certainly noticed a change in the content of my posts. While my tone remains bitter and sarcastic (like Bill), my main topic of interest has been baseball (unlike Bill). Therefore, I decided to create a new weblog for my baseball studies and commentary. I am happy to announce the start of Sabernomics: a

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080234353168591272004-03-25T09:05:00.000-08:002004-03-25T09:11:51.780-08:00

Doug Pappas and Baseball Primer discuss a study by Marc Poitras (GMU alum) and Larry Hadley that shows privately funded baseball stadiums can turn a profit. In their study, the researchers took into account team performance, ticket prices, the honeymoon period of a new stadium, stadium capacity and player salaries. With the first season in a typical $268 million stadium expected to produce

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080225468365239882004-03-25T06:37:00.000-08:002004-03-25T07:10:17.110-08:00

Q: Why is this weblog, which is mostly about baseball economics, named "Old Fishinghat?" A: Here is a picture of this site's namesake.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080141917389580522004-03-24T07:25:00.000-08:002004-03-24T13:20:26.496-08:00

This article by Chris Dial caused me to revisit some of my thinking about the quality of competition in baseball over time. Judging player ability over time when player performance is a function of other participants in the game is not easy. For example, in sports such as running, where the outcome is measured by time, it is very easy to compare athletes over time using absolute measures of

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1080053602206048942004-03-23T06:53:00.000-08:002004-03-23T07:03:54.653-08:00

Skip posts an interesting observation from Steven Levitt. I spent the summer on the couch trying to think seminal thoughts. Not a single one came to me. Though not intended to be advice, but I think it is instructive.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079972295669863942004-03-22T08:18:00.000-08:002004-03-22T08:44:45.060-08:00

I just found out about a cool new feature on Yahoo! that allows you to create a news aggregator. The news aggregator receives RSS feeds from all of your favorite sites (up to 20) and displays the updates for each site. To get an account you need to: 1) Get a Yahoo! account. 2) Go to My Yahoo and select "Choose Content" 3) Click on "RSS Headlines" From there you can search for your favorite

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079814227959191212004-03-20T12:23:00.000-08:002004-03-20T13:20:01.733-08:00

It now seems that the only criterion needed to prove a player is on steroids is for a player to have one season out of the ordinary. The latest victim of this new metric is Brady Anderson, who hit 50 home runs in 1996 -- about double the amount he hit in any other season. This week, Jim "Head and Shoulders" Palmer used this standard to accuse Anderson of using steroids during the 1996 season.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079814003892418112004-03-20T12:20:00.000-08:002004-03-21T14:24:05.966-08:00

We are having fantastic weather here today, which caused me to get out the old fishinghat (yes, it really exists) and hit the water. I went down to The Depot, bought my fishing license, and went to "Lake" Running Knob Hollow with my ultra-light. I caught a bass on the first cast, but I only caught one more after that. Both of the fish barely fought, but it sure was nice to feel the bend in the

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079718759868100622004-03-19T09:52:00.000-08:002004-03-21T07:21:04.420-08:00

After looking into the aging patterns of hitters, the next step is to look at pitchers. How does pitcher performance improve and decline with age? I used the same regression technique I used for hitters to estimate the effect of age on pitching performance using this model. ERA+ or K/BB+ = X(Age) + B1(Lag of ERA+ or K/BB+) + B2 (# Batters Faced by Pitcher) + V (player constants) + e ERA+ is

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079712947196753942004-03-19T08:15:00.000-08:002004-03-19T08:42:19.153-08:00

Shonk points to some criticism that The Sewanee Purple (our student newspaper) is receiving from Virtuosity -- a site that claims to be "the voice for Global Orthodox Anglicanism." It seems the most recent issue of The Purple had a few articles with sexual content in them, which, according to Virtuosity readers, is not appropriate for a school owned by several diocese of the Episcopal Church.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079712144351606682004-03-19T08:02:00.000-08:002004-03-19T09:10:42.233-08:00

Selling Waves has just posted the most extensive catalog of Sewanee blogs to date. Good work Shonk. I have links to a few Sewanee blogs over on the left sidebar that I post only with permission of the blog owner. I am always open to add more.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079643612885687292004-03-18T12:59:00.000-08:002004-03-18T13:04:02.450-08:00

From an email I received earlier from a Florida Atlantic University professor of marketing regarding a new Jeb Bush initiative to use standardized testing to determine part of state university budgets: Florida's university faculty are blasting a proposal to tie student achievement to how much state aid universities receive. A new law requires the state Board of Governors to come up with a way to

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079641789557985682004-03-18T12:27:00.000-08:002004-03-18T12:33:09.153-08:00

Today I received a phone call from a top secret contact in the Kerry campaign who told me some very interesting and exclusive new information. According to my source, not only do many powerful, but anonymous world leaders support John Kerry, but they also read “Old Fishinghat” everyday, not just for entertainment, but to help them make important and difficult policy choices. The same is true

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079582798900039452004-03-17T20:04:00.000-08:002004-03-17T20:11:45.560-08:00

Stephen Moore of the Club for Growth on the Wednesday, March 17, 2004 episode of Dennis Miller on CNBC: Iraq should not rejoin OPEC, which is the one monopoly in the global economy. If oil were actually selling at the market price today rather than under a monopoly system, oil would actually cost you 40 or 50 cents a gallon at the pump, not $2.29 a gallon. Wow! That is some real monopoly

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079542514861617332004-03-17T08:55:00.000-08:002004-03-17T09:04:31.076-08:00

Enjoy your spring break, but don't let this happen to you. Or you could end up like this.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079535137609183762004-03-17T06:52:00.000-08:002004-03-17T06:55:35.106-08:00

I have made some more changes to the CSS of the site, thanks to some friendly advice from Shonk. IE 6 can handle it, but lower versions are not perfect. However, the new layout should work better for Mozilla and some others. Since, the IE 6 update is free, I am going to leave it as is, but if anyone is having any serious problems viewing the site, please post in the comments section. Be sure

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079473807601339482004-03-16T13:50:00.000-08:002004-03-16T20:46:36.873-08:00

A reader has asked me to produce some graphs for Bonds and McGwire compared to a baseline of other players. The baseline I chose is all players with a career OPS+ > 120. The lines are quadratic fits of their OPS+ by age. Interesting.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079465818632709612004-03-16T11:36:00.000-08:002004-03-16T13:00:58.793-08:00

Since my last posts (here and here) I have received several excellent suggestions on how to modify the model. First, I want to break down the player/age effect by different types of players. Though I discussed this below, the age-performance curves make it clear that there is not much difference in aging patterns across differently-abled players. The three classifications of players with career

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079372453366554202004-03-15T09:40:00.000-08:002004-03-15T09:45:03.623-08:00

Aaron Gleeman & Co. have started a new webpage which contains much sabermetric- inclined commentary. Visit The Hard Times to see for yourself. Let's hope this Hard Times isn't dedicated to Thomas Carlyle. ;-)

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079233673539088732004-03-13T19:07:00.000-08:002004-03-14T05:58:02.373-08:00

Since my earlier post, I have had some more time to analyze the data and examine a few other studies on aging in baseball. The literature tends to support the conventional wisdom that players peak around 27. Here are some links to studies and their predictions of peak age. Keep in mind that this is a brief summary on my part and my reporting does not reflect the caveats of the authors. I

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079131666303918272004-03-12T14:47:00.000-08:002004-03-13T17:56:54.826-08:00

Well, I might as well give up on trying to make this site a news filter with commentary. I'm teaching econometrics this semester, which means I have Stata up on my computer a lot, and well...somehow whenever a question pops into my head I cannot resist the temptation to answer it. And it just so happens that I have been thinking a lot about baseball lately. Putting aside my apologies... I was

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1079023344425597382004-03-11T08:42:00.000-08:002004-03-11T11:07:56.780-08:00

All of the steroids talk has stimulated a discussion on baseball's anti-trust exemption over at Baseball Musings. A reader comments, Look, the MLB exists only because Congress is willing to grant it an exception from anti-trust laws. David responds, If anything, Major League Baseball would be stronger without the antitrust exemption. It would have to compete against independent minor leagues

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078863307348658632004-03-09T12:15:00.000-08:002004-03-09T12:25:04.140-08:00

When reexamining my data on ERA skewness I realized that the data I used to generate the histograms was not my ideal choice. I prefer the data, which I report below, that limits the observations to pitchers facing more than 50 batters in a season. I just grabbed the wrong dataset; however, the skew looks pretty similar to the data reported below. I'll report it numerically by percentiles this

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078784792312951692004-03-08T14:26:00.000-08:002004-03-08T14:50:46.826-08:00

Last Friday I commented that despite the recent fall in ERAs in MLB since 2000, the variance relative to the mean ERA has risen. Using an assumption from Stephen Jay Gould I assumed that this increased variance in pitching performance indicated an influx of some very bad pitching into the league. However, Skip was a little more skeptical. Time for a skewness check! If Kurjian & Bagwell are

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078751090356183552004-03-08T05:04:00.000-08:002004-03-08T05:09:42.546-08:00

Johnny Shoaf posts some excellent commentary on a recent speech given at Sewanee by Dr. Stephanie Luce. Luce is the coauthor of Living Wage, which I discussed in December as a simply awful book. For example, the law of demand -- oh, excuse me Dr. Luce -- the "law of demand" applies when the workforce increases with welfare reform, but it does not exist when "living wage" laws go into affect.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078749563378947722004-03-08T04:39:00.000-08:002004-03-08T11:25:25.793-08:00

I have been wanting a three-column layout for some time, but Blogger doesn't offer it. Finally, I bit the bullet and learned a little CSS to turn my two-column Blogger template into a three-column setup. It was harder than you think, especially when one-handed typing with my 6-month-old daughter in the other arm. I would like to thank Glish.com for the information needed to convert my template.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078521944374524842004-03-05T13:25:00.000-08:002004-03-05T13:53:39.500-08:00

I thought of another interesting way to look at stats to see how steroids affect performance. Luckily, we have one player whom we know took steroids, and when he started. Ken Caminiti's 1996 performance for the San Diego Padres was his best season, and it won him the MVP. And two years ago he revealed that during this season he also took steroids. And though he continued to use steroids after

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078516413403951362004-03-05T11:53:00.000-08:002004-03-05T12:50:41.890-08:00

Skip links to an interesting article by Tim Kurkjian at ESPN on the improvement of pitchers in MLB. What caught my eye first was the quote by Jeff Bagwell. "Pitching is so much better today,'' says Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell. "When I came up (1991), 91 (mph) is about as hard as anyone threw except for like (Rob) Dibble who threw 94. Now, almost everyone throws 94, and most of them are

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078432414032967832004-03-04T12:33:00.000-08:002004-03-04T12:39:33.216-08:00

Life Expectancy Women's Well-Being From the Foreign Policy Globalization Index. See more from Tyler. I wonder if I could make a huge puppet of these diagrams and take them to the next World Bank protest. If there is one thing I know, it's that World Bank protesters like puppets.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078420626166958072004-03-04T09:17:00.000-08:002004-03-04T09:21:09.546-08:00

UGA has released a copy of the final exam from Jim Harrick, Jr.'s "Coaching Principles and Strategies of Basketball" class. Here are my favorite questions from the 20 question exam. 1. How many goals are on a basketball court? a. 1 b. 2 c. 3 d. 4 2. How many players are allowed to play at one time on any one team in a regulation game? a. 2 b. 3 c. 4 d. 5 5. How many halves are in a college

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078412605021292402004-03-04T07:03:00.000-08:002004-03-04T12:55:18.936-08:00

As promised in the update from yesterday's post here are the results from the test of hitting power on walks for 2001. The format is close to the same as before, with only a few modifications. First, the coefficients I report result from regressions without the control variables. I did this because I want show you the strongest support I can find for power preceding walks (recall that I have

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078344450366261212004-03-03T12:07:00.000-08:002004-03-03T15:00:07.793-08:00

In a previous post I proposed that Bonds's increased walks must be independent of power. Since that time I have come to believe that power might affect walks by causing pitchers to avoid pitching to Bonds. So, I decided to test it. Thanks to a thoughtful reader I was able to acquire game-by-game stats for the 2002 season on ESPN.com. Unfortunately, I cannot find the game logs for 2001

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078324229895724242004-03-03T06:30:00.000-08:002004-03-03T06:43:45.310-08:00

Here is a lesson for newbie bloggers. If you have a brain fart over the weekend, don't post it the day before a story breaks contradicting your hypothesis. Thanks to all of you who have sent me comments. It is clear to me now that looking at Bonds's walk rate you cannot show his hitting improvement is a result of his hitting discipline steroid-free. However, proving he is on the juice from

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078285485810355552004-03-02T19:44:00.000-08:002004-03-02T19:49:35.170-08:00

So the Presidential race is set. I have one thought: Bush in a landslide. I have said it before, but tonight my thoughts were confirmed. In front of his first national audience as the de facto Democratic nominee, who does Kerry have introduce him? Senator Ted Kennedy. How is this even remotely a good political move? Hey John, Dean is gone; stop moving left if you want to win.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078281291642014932004-03-02T18:34:00.000-08:002004-03-02T18:46:09.436-08:00

Given the recent news on steroids in MLB I thought I would dig up some stuff I have already written on the subject. See here and here. The general feeling among commentators on this issue is that owners want drug tests, but players do not. And both sides seem to mirror this feeling. But this is odd! Steroid use by one player gives him an advantage over non-steroid users. This converts scrubs to

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078267981932863992004-03-02T14:53:00.000-08:002004-03-02T14:57:41.840-08:00

Hey, guess what? Free Trackback! Mitch Hedberg: "Dude, you've got to give me time to guess." Thanks Haloscan! So, I hope you get used to seeing "Trackback (0)."

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078249191089225122004-03-02T09:39:00.000-08:002004-03-02T19:27:44.716-08:00

Tyler points to a Fraser Institute study on economic freedom across North American states and provinces. As with all studies of economic freedom, controlling for yadda yadda yadda, this freedom index is associated with greater income and income growth. I am all for more economic freedom, but I don't buy these intra-national comparisons of economic freedom in the way I buy the international

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078233648516300942004-03-02T05:20:00.000-08:002004-03-02T06:31:26.530-08:00

Well, the day after I open my big fat mouth about Bonds not using steroids I wake up to see the headline Bonds Got Steroids. The story cites one source stating that Bonds was given steroids by his trainer. I have to say that the story is poorly written, and I am not sure what to make of the article's quality. For example, the story claims Bonds was given steroids during his historic 73 HR

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1078163258296781172004-03-01T09:47:00.000-08:002004-03-03T13:28:25.780-08:00

Update: My thoughts have changed somewhat since I first posted this. See here, here, and here; and direct your comments to these threads. I am sick and tired of reading about how Barry Bonds's records, among others, are tainted due to steroids. Let's look at Bonds's success in his recent offensive boom. I'll exclude his first year in the league to limit some bias to these estimates. From

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077977267759817552004-02-28T06:07:00.000-08:002004-02-28T06:20:56.296-08:00

Why did Jason Alexander win the part of George Costanza on Seinfeld? The recent strife over Seinfeld re-run royalties makes it clear that Mr. Alexander did not have to try very hard to get into his role. Jason Alexander in The Globe and Mail: "I'm not ashamed to talk numbers. I would say in the years that we've been in syndication, Julia, Michael and I have probably individually seen about a

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077944137759778022004-02-27T20:53:00.000-08:002004-02-27T21:04:10.856-08:00

As a serious student and fan of country music, I believe that Ray Charles and Charley Pride are two of the greatest hillbilly singers ever. This month, to celebrate Black History, CMT has a new documentary called “Waiting in the Wings: African Americans in Country Music”. The show is an hour and a half, and does a good, if brief, job of profiling both Charles and Pride. Ray Charles

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077853813449284602004-02-26T19:48:00.000-08:002004-02-26T19:53:05.060-08:00

After reading article by Virginia Postrel, recommended below by JC, I think I might finally understand why Democrats and liberals are so passionately against free trade. I think it springs from their single-minded focus on relative incomes and standards of living. Liberals constantly argue against free markets and freedom generally because it results in a distribution of wealth that they deem

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077815312913197072004-02-26T09:08:00.000-08:002004-02-26T09:11:23.716-08:00

I am a bit busy so I will just point you to this article by Virginia Postrel on free trade and economic growth in US states. See The Sports Economist for analysis.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077642749271090232004-02-24T09:12:00.000-08:002004-02-24T09:20:16.326-08:00

Tyler Cowen cites some research on the subject, and the news is good. -- Only four percent of finishing Ph.d. students received no financial aid whatsoever. -- The unemployment rate for graduating Ph.d. students is projected at 2.1 percent. -- Only six percent of Ph.d. graduates in economics say they do not like their jobs. The median salary is $74,000, again noting that not everyone responded

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077633414278250052004-02-24T06:36:00.000-08:002004-02-24T14:58:05.216-08:00

The Sports Economist links to an article in the Financial Times about University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt. Levitt, the most recent winner of the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal, is a very interesting fellow. If you had me for senior seminar, you know how much I admire Dr. Levitt's work. But this quote at the end of the article surprised me. There has been much hype recently

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077594923408720552004-02-23T19:51:00.000-08:002004-02-23T20:00:19.996-08:00

I had the misfortune of visiting the Post Office last week. In honor of black history month, they are heavily promoting a new stamp featuring Paul Robeson. The post office describes him as a “performer, athlete, and activist”, which is true, but leaves something out. Robeson was a communist, and not the fuzzy sort who are merely for wealth redistribution. He was an admirer of Joseph Stalin,

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077570916545355042004-02-23T13:15:00.000-08:002004-02-24T06:45:41.233-08:00

As promised from this post, here is average number of wins per season (1995-2002) adjusted for the number of wins attributable to population size. I simply subtracted out the number of wins attributable to population size -- calculated from the marginal impact of population on wins in a regression -- from the actual wins for each team. I find it interesting that the NY Yankees fall only from

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077564513280886562004-02-23T11:28:00.000-08:002004-02-23T11:33:26.250-08:00

I just ran into an interesting website by Eric McErlain. Naturally, being a market-friendly economist who likes sports I had to follow the link to the author's Free Market Sports Manifesto. This post is about a year-and-a-half old, but it is still relevant. Here are the top-5 points: 1. Athletes are not overpaid, they are simply paid a salary that owners can afford. If you believe that athletes

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077309139344144022004-02-20T12:32:00.000-08:002004-02-20T14:18:48.890-08:00

Aaron Schatz of the New Republic Online (and Football Outsiders) argues that the Bill James revolution brought forth by Billy Beane is dead. With the dispersion of Beane disciples Ricardi and DePodesta to Toronto and LA, as well as the acceptance of sabermetric philosophy in NY (both teams) and Boston, there are no more market inefficiencies for small-market teams to exploit. Unfortunately,

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077307013064135682004-02-20T11:56:00.000-08:002004-02-20T12:15:44.280-08:00

How much of an advantage is a bigger population to baseball teams? I was curious so I regressed the effect of Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) population on average wins from 1995-2002.* Here is a scatter-plot of the data with a regression line. Basically, every 1.9 million people translates into an additional win per season. I have used this number to calculate the population adjusted

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077254021014561252004-02-19T21:13:00.000-08:002004-02-19T21:19:07.640-08:00

Doug Pappas points to this Chicago Sun-Times article on how the new rooftop bleacher arrangement allowed the Cubs to sign Greg Maddux. General manager Jim Hendry acknowledged Wednesday that if not for the profits gleaned by Tribune Co. sharing in those rooftop proceeds, if not for the extra cash from 200 premium seats being installed behind home plate and the financial lift from four extra

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077227284576319892004-02-19T13:44:00.000-08:002004-02-19T13:52:51.546-08:00

Earlier today I met with a student to review for an upcoming exam. As I looked at her notes, I was very impressed. They were a virtual transcript of my lectures, neatly typed, with all of the various graphs I use recreated with software. When I complemented her on the notes, she told me she got them from my website, which surprised me, because I never created such a fancy set of notes. On

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077212254774554032004-02-19T09:37:00.000-08:002004-02-19T09:40:15.576-08:00

From today's Chronicle of Higher Education: Canada's mandatory-retirement law has ended up as a boon for the University of Texas at Austin, where the government department has hired a pre-eminent political philosopher from the University of Toronto. Thomas L. Pangle, who will turn 60 this year and is known as one of North America's leading historians of political thought, has agreed to move to

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077169310386382612004-02-18T21:41:00.000-08:002004-02-18T21:44:30.466-08:00

After my rant yesterday on why academia needs a Paul Depodesta, it seems that I am not alone in my thoughts. Matt Welch points to this article on the NRO on the need for a Bill James and Billy Beane for the entire US education system. While the academy needs more than a tweak, I think the US education system as a whole (or is it hole) needs a sledgehammer. If Bill James couldn't help the

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077157647295551082004-02-18T18:24:00.000-08:002004-02-18T21:34:07.373-08:00

Gregg Easterbrook is one of my favorite writers. I believe he really cares about poor people. If you also care about poor people, but disagree in the slightest with Easterbrook about how to help them, you are a bad person. If you are a Christian and disagree with him, than you are a hypocrite. He explains: No, I won't blame the greedy rich and the hypocritical politicians for the

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077121274607603492004-02-18T08:21:00.000-08:002004-02-18T09:08:34.483-08:00

Tech Central Station has a list of current anti-trade zealots. It is nice to have a record of these things for future reference. The list is not exhaustive, and certainly maybe even George Bush (or at least Karl Rove) deserves a spot for his support of steel tariffs. But speaking of Bush, I wonder what his position on trade will be. Will he move protectionist to counter Kerry or Edwards and

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1077041145730080282004-02-17T10:05:00.000-08:002004-02-17T10:10:59.936-08:00

Rob Neyer has an excellent article on the Dodger's new GM Paul DePodesta. He cites this speech and says it has been pulled off the web, but thanks to the Google cache it is still freely available for a limited time. Now I know DePodesta as a character in Moneyball. A shrewd personality-lacking stats geek with a knack for finding hidden baseball stars in his laptop database. Read this article;

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-107696750570609912004-02-16T13:35:00.000-08:002004-02-16T13:43:09.186-08:00

Another Sunday without the NFL, but instead of going outside and getting a life, I watched the Sunday morning talk shows. On ABC This Week, Charles Schumer (D-NY) presented the following case against free trade. He argued that Ricardo's theory no longer applies because of three major changes which all made trade harmful for America. Increased Capital Flows - Now Americans can easily invest

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076941906781983702004-02-16T06:31:00.000-08:002004-02-16T06:35:11.873-08:00

As Bill pointed out recently, John Edwards's 10 year-old girl story seems a bit far fetched. Alex Tabarrok agrees citing this article in the NY Times, which also brings Mr. Edwards's protectionist views into conflict with his poverty position. Yet, as John Tierney points out, "clothing has become so cheap and plentiful (partly because of textile imports, which Mr. Edwards has proposed to

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076936997492421942004-02-16T05:09:00.000-08:002004-02-16T05:12:34.310-08:00

Chip Taylor links to three good stories on the benefits of outsourcing.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076901984087837942004-02-15T19:26:00.000-08:002004-02-15T19:37:27.356-08:00

I was saddened to hear of the death of Lawrence Ritter, who passed away today at the age of 81. Ritter is most known for his book The Glory of Their Times: The Story of the Early Days of Baseball -- Told By the Men Who Played It. My grandfather gave me this book for my birthday when I was about 11, I promptly put in on a shelf where it sat for a decade. One summer in college I finally got

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076877572392339652004-02-15T12:39:00.000-08:002004-02-16T05:02:52.746-08:00

So baseball fans everywhere are screaming again. “The big-market free-spending Yankees have made the 2004 baseball season virtually irrelevant a week before spring training starts,” or so they claim. As the deal is being reported by ESPN, the Yankees send second baseman Alfonso Soriano to Texas for last year’s AL MVP, Alex Rodriguez. However, I am not so sure that this is a case of the Yankee’

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076683876631122382004-02-13T06:51:00.000-08:002004-02-13T06:58:44.610-08:00

I grew in Charlotte. I waited patiently for soon-to-be Hornets owner George Shinn to bring a professional sports team to town. He went after the USFL, MLB, the NFL, but he only succeeded in landing the Hornets. The town was so grateful the Hornets led the league in attendance for a decade. I went to at least one game every season during this franchise's first 10 years. Only moving away from

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076654237483773752004-02-12T22:35:00.000-08:002004-02-12T22:43:30.840-08:00

Apparently, being a “compassionate conservative” does not mean governing like Barry Goldwater with a smile, but free spending to buy votes. That being said, I believed Bush has been surprisingly aggressive and rational when it comes to dealing with terrorism. According Perle and Frum in their book An End to Evil, Bush has done OK, but if we really want to win the war against terrorism, the

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076624326797487612004-02-12T14:14:00.000-08:002004-02-12T18:17:43.826-08:00

From CMT: Clark Declines Playboy Cover "It Seems Sex Is a Fast Track to Media Attention," Singer Says Terri Clark has turned down the chance to pose for the cover of Playboy magazine. After coming in second place (behind Shania Twain) in a poll on Playboy's Web site last year, Clark was offered the cover of May's music issue. Hopefully they will not work their way down the list until they get

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076616497248310312004-02-12T12:08:00.000-08:002004-02-12T18:19:16.873-08:00

I have studied the issue of hit batsmen in the Major Leagues quite a bit, yet I still cannot explain this pattern in the rate that pitchers have been hitting batters over time. It is as if the data are trying to ask "W[hy]?".

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076606468680922652004-02-12T09:21:00.000-08:002004-02-12T09:23:40.140-08:00

James Glassman at TechCentral has a nice article bashing some prominent critics of outsourcing. If you are in my 101 class, I encourage you to read it twice. Another word for outsourcing is "trade" -- an endeavor, as economists learned early on, that benefits both parties to the exchange. Nothing has changed since Adam Smith wrote in 1776: "It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076605535333512582004-02-12T09:00:00.000-08:002004-02-12T09:14:59.123-08:00

Fox News’s Brit Hume reported Tuesday on this story from Duke University. Students there surveyed the party affiliation of campus faculty and found that Democrats outnumber Republicans 142 to 8. Not so surprising, but consider the explanation given by Dr. Robert Brandon, chairman of the department of Philosophy as two why “liberals” so outnumber “conservatives” at Duke: "We try to hire the

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076591676719652652004-02-12T05:14:00.000-08:002004-02-12T05:17:07.936-08:00

From ESPN: Oakland assistant general manager Paul DePodesta is expected to be named the new GM of the Dodgers this weekend, ESPN's Peter Gammons reports. DePodesta has been a top assistant to GM Billy Beane since joining the A's in November 1998, and this would be his sixth season with the club. He earned an economics degree from Harvard. Of course, I guess an alternate title to this post

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076563510961411732004-02-11T21:25:00.000-08:002004-02-12T06:14:19.733-08:00

I really enjoy Rob Neyer's articles on ESPN.com. His stuff is great for anyone with a budding interest in sabermetrics like me. I happened to be reading Neyer's latest -- in which he debunks an article predicting standings for the next five baseball seasons -- when I ran across this great line. So you run the numbers, and you discover that your output is completely meaningless. Drivel. What do

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076538082640233212004-02-11T14:21:00.000-08:002004-02-11T14:57:43.403-08:00

How good is the competition in Major League Baseball today? In the early days of baseball, baseball players represented a much larger fraction of the country's total population. Therefore, the players today may be less dispersed along the spectrum from bad to good players. In other words, teams ought to be more equal in terms of talent that compose the team. However, since professional

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076532783433281892004-02-11T12:53:00.000-08:002004-02-11T12:56:34.356-08:00

Baseball Primer pointed me to this article over on Baseball Prospectus. It is a list of 23 important problems that sabermetricians ought to solve. The list includes these problems relevant to the economics of baseball. 15) Clarifying the win/dollar trade-off preferences for major league decision-makers. Winning has never been the only thing in baseball. The fact that baseball is a business

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076421467613888232004-02-10T05:52:00.000-08:002004-02-10T06:00:15.496-08:00

Someone should make a movie about Thomas Moore. The classic film “A Man for All Seasons” is supposedly about him, but it belongs with "Your Cheatin’ Heart” (about Hank Williams) among the most inaccurate biographical films ever made. An accurate portrayal of Moore would have to include his overwhelming passion for burning people alive. Moore cheered when his superiors burned heretics, and

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076420144924073872004-02-10T05:35:00.000-08:002004-02-10T05:39:49.496-08:00

Tyler on Haiti: Haiti remains mired in possible civil war, but this was not the most depressing Haitian news story of the day. The Washington Post reports on water supplies in Haiti: ...three times a day, she [a mother] fills a five-gallon tub, balances it on her head and walks steadily and gracefully back up to her one-room house, careful not to spill a drop. The water may not be safe to drink

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076355360389896952004-02-09T11:36:00.000-08:002004-02-09T11:49:22.513-08:00

This morning I received this information in an e-mail to the Sewanee community. A living wage is a wage sufficient to meet the basic needs of workers and their dependents. This includes necessities such as shelter, food, clothing, health care, and transportation. The living wage for Grundy County is $15.23/hour while the national minimum wage is only $5.15/hour. Grundy County is right next

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076250456194258462004-02-08T06:27:00.000-08:002004-02-08T06:32:08.186-08:00

Chip Taylor points to an interesting example of Coasean bargaining featured in the NY Times. It was the blue that doomed Cheshire, Ohio. That was the signature tint of sulfur trioxide and sulfuric acid, emissions from the massive coal-burning power plant whose smokestacks and cooling towers loomed over the town. On days when the smoke was blue, locals complained of sore throats, burning eyes

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076248857461899762004-02-08T06:00:00.000-08:002004-02-08T06:16:24.356-08:00

Tyler Cowen weighs in on young players jumping to the NFL. If you missed it, we have had a lively discussion on this issue here, here, and here. [B]anning high school players helps keep the league in competitive balance. Consider the NBA. There was once a time when the prime draft picks had played four years of college ball. The worst team picked first and was virtually guaranteed to pick a

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076193752208508332004-02-07T14:42:00.000-08:002004-02-07T14:46:39.293-08:00

As a sports fan I’m depressed. The Super Bowl just ended and opening day in baseball is two months away. I might be able to stomach some college basketball, but I really can’t see much reason to start watching that until the ACC tournament. But, Tim Kurkjian of ESPN filled me with hope for seasons to come. It could happen. Major League Baseball and other entities, are attempting to organize

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076129372396925132004-02-06T20:49:00.000-08:002004-02-06T21:30:40.420-08:00

I don't want my rant on the NCAA to be taken as an indication of support for the application of antitrust laws in the professional sports world. I am a firm believer that the past application of antitrust laws to this peculiar industry have been only harmful. The judge's decision, on its face, makes no sense to me. I'll give her the benefit of the doubt that she is following a bizarre yet

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076095693352113102004-02-06T11:26:00.000-08:002004-02-06T11:31:24.746-08:00

In answer to JC earlier post. I have no affection for the NCAA as a cartel. I do however have great affection for the NFL. I have a great fear that removing the “three years out of high school” rule will spell the same doom for the NFL that it has spelled for the NBA. Gregg Easterbrook, in a post on this subject, suggests: Why has the National Basketball Association, the hot rising sport in

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076088653872403602004-02-06T09:30:00.000-08:002004-02-06T09:44:57.860-08:00

Tyler cites and interesting grading system used by one Chinese school for loaning grades to students. A student who does poorly on a test can borrow points from a future test with 100% interest. This means every one-point loan results in two fewer points from the next test. I am all for markets, but I think this system really violates what grades represent. The one aspect of being a

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076087489435018472004-02-06T09:11:00.000-08:002004-02-06T09:14:42.326-08:00

It has taken me a while but I have to second Bill's recommendation of Patty Loveless's latest, On Your Way Home. I got a copy for Christmas, but I really didn't get a chance to devote more than a casual listening. Last night, I devoted serious attention to it, and I was blown away. Bill's description as "depressingly fantastic" is dead on. Patty's voice is just haunting. Songs that might

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076078200105985802004-02-06T06:36:00.000-08:002004-02-06T06:53:02.216-08:00

I was happy to hear that Maurice Clarett has been declared eligible for the NFL draft. Although the judge used antitrust law (of which I am not all that fond) to do this, I am happy to see the NCAA suffer. The NCAA is disappointed. Wally Renfro, senior advisor to the president of the NCAA, says allowing students to jump into the NFL at an earlier age will result in more college athletes

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1076073588413374712004-02-06T05:19:00.000-08:002004-02-06T09:22:29.390-08:00

I am starting to wonder what the purpose of the Op-Ed page of the paper is. I know it is an outlet for political opinion, but now I see many writers about as informative as "viewer feedback." I really don't care what a random selection of people think about a particular political issue. What does that person have to add to the policy debate? Normally, nothing. To me TV producers add these

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1075943408933960802004-02-04T17:09:00.000-08:002004-02-04T17:12:29.890-08:00

In teaching intermediate microeconomics, I been thinking about indifference, and have come up with several personal examples of bundles, that when combined, leave me indifferent. I reveal them here, although they almost certainly show that I am not a very good or serious person. When CMT Crossroads featured Ray Charles (+) and Travis Tritt (-). Ashley Judd and Wynonna Judd Mike Martz as

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1075943178088454832004-02-04T16:53:00.000-08:002004-02-04T17:11:28.670-08:00

From his Tuesday night South Carolina victory speech: Now I want to take just a moment on this night of extraordinary celebration of a great political victory to talk just for a moment about the millions of Americans who will not go home, go to bed and celebrate tonight, the millions of Americans who struggle every single day just to provide for their own families. Tonight -- tonight --

Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10080393034223017676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1075934151660175142004-02-04T14:35:00.000-08:002004-03-27T19:36:53.826-08:00

Economists are baffled at Billy Beane's discovery of Bill James. James publishes his first book in 1977 but few in MLB take him seriously until the mid-to-late 1990s in Oakland. As I discuss in a previous post, maybe James's ideas got pushed aside due to some bad luck. Mainly, maybe some of his good ideas looked bad due to anomalies in baseball that occurred at the time he came on the scene.

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1075927518996208982004-02-04T12:45:00.000-08:002004-02-04T14:13:15.450-08:00

David Pinto at Baseball Musings cites an excellent article by Dominic Rivers on estimating the effects of on-base-percentage (OBP) and slugging (SLG) on producing runs. Dominic starts off trying to replicate the results of Moneyball stat-hound Paul DePodesta. Though he does not find the Moneyball OBP:SLG ratio to be 3:1 as is claimed in the book, he does find SLG to be more important than OBP

JCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5972117.post-1075915340554032772004-02-04T09:22:00.000-08:002004-02-04T09:29:51.090-08:00

So now it seems that the Democratic race to see who can become the most anti-trade candidate has hit a new low. Now candidates are upset that sending jobs overseas "destroys" American computer jobs. Hmmm...didn't these same computer jobs once "destroy" jobs in now defunct sectors of the economy? So why is the computer industry so morally superior that we are happy when computers "destroy"

JCnoreply@blogger.com